Nike Cross Nationals - New York Meet Preview

Saturday, November 26, 2011. Bowdoin Park -- Wappingers Falls. 

Starting Times: 12:10 (girls) and 12:45 (boys) for NY Championship races

Meet Info Snapshot
The Nike Cross Nationals (NXN) qualifier races for the New York regional and for the rest of the Northeast regional will be run at Bowdoin Park on Saturday, November 26. The overstuffing binge from Thanksgiving should have worn off by just after noon when the NY championship races are held to determine which teams and which 5 runners for the boys and girls will be traveling to Portland Meadows in Oregon for the following Saturday's races for Nike's latest configuration of the track area. The day's races this Saturday start at 8:00 with Nike's shorter races for very young runners in categories like youth, bantam and midget, then comes the Girls Open race for all NY and NE runners not in the championship races at 9:30 and the boys at 10:05. After the Open awards ceremony, the NE Girls Championship will take off at 11:00 and the boys version at 11:35, followed by the two NY races and then the Championships awards ceremony.
So what does this all mean for the select group of teams and runners that will be competing in the NXN NY races? First off, this is the time of year that you have to reorient yourself as an XC fan. Due to certain arcane HS sporting even participation rules, the schools that you have grown accustomed to rooting for now disappear. They are reborn as different track club entities, some obvious such as the Manlius TC, Burnt Hills TC, or Arlington TC, but others that you need a scorecard (or Smartphone app) to identify, such as Kinetic RC (Saratoga Springs), Adirondack Runners (Queensbury), and Comets XC (Rush Henrietta), along with remembering that North Shore is running as North Shore Running Club instead of Glen Head XC as in 2010 and Shaker is Shaker T+F Club instead of last year's Latham. CHSAA fans should cheer for Assisi instead of  St. Anthonys), Fidelis rather than Monsignor Farrell, and the Flyers instead of Chaminade. Maple Grove changes locations to Bemus Point, and Westhill gets to represent all of Syracuse. Sachem East fans have the Sachem Spike Shoe Club for the girls and the perhaps less stylish Sachem Running Club for the boys, and the Burnt Hills girls are the BH Deluge while the boys are the BH Track Club. And this doesn't even touch on all the confusion bubbling up in the Open races, where if you are a Pearl River fan you need to decide which of Pirates girls teams to pull for between B, C, D, and E (note: roster has a mistake and includes A team there instead of D). The officials at the Federation Championship meet at Bowdoin were a pretty strict bunch, so you can expect the same to be true about rules regarding cheering for teams at the Nike races. The biggest question though is how many NY teams will be selected for Nationals?
A team championship meet only from 2004 to 2008, two years ago NXN expanded to allow individual runners to also compete. The top 5 individual runners at each of the 8 regional meets (and 5 more from CA, which does not hold a regional meet) get a berth at Portland, along with the top 2 teams and any other teams selected from an at-large pool of 4 spots that Nike uses to choose deserving teams that didn't qualify as one of the top duo at their regional or were not selected by the CA regional board.  In 2006 Nike infamously did not include 2004 NXN champ and 2005 runner-up Saratoga among its girls at-large picks and instead selected teams that finished near the back of the pack. Last year the NY girls got only 3 slots instead of the usual 4 and went on to dominate by taking the top two places and 9th, while the three at-large teams from other regions besides NY's North Shore finished far back. In the last 6 years no NY girls team has finished in the lower half of the standings at Nationals. So selection time holds many mysteries for NY fans.
This year XCNation has 7 nationally ranked NY guys teams and all will be competing in the NXN NY. The four teams in the top 25 include Fayetteville-Manlius (Manlius) in 3rd, Rush-Henrietta (Comets) in 8th, Shaker in 17th, and Arlington in 25th, so you would expect that all have a strong to fair shot at a Nationals berth. The NY girls have 8 nationally ranked teams, and #1 Fayetteville-Manlius (Manlius), #2 Saratoga (Kinetic), and #3 North Shore can be viewed as locks for Portland. But any 4th slot for the girls would likely need to come from a pack of teams ranging from #26 Canandaigua, #30 Bronxville (seems to be out), #31 Burnt Hills, and #33 Greenwich, so one of these strong teams will need to perform at maybe a little higher level to get the attention of the selection committee and avoid another snub for NY. A few more teams headed by #48 Pearl River also are taking a shot.
And where does it all lead to? The  Portland Meadows course in Oregon has been the scene of great success for the NY girls and boys, so next week you can expect to see some pretty healthy predictions concerning some NY teams and a few` individual runners.
2010 Synopsis
To put it simply, the 2010 NXN-NY races were where Manlius (FM) started to put the hammer down as it got into Nationals mode. The FM boys had finished 3rd at States, but two weeks later they came to Bowdoin, and ran to a 45-59 win over States AA and Feds champ Shaker. The Manlius top 5 of Mark McGurrin, Nick Ryan, Andrew Roache, Andrew Villeux, and Ben Thomas had an 8 second average advantage over Shaker, and they went on to take 2nd Nationals and were able to look forward to the return of Ryan and Thomas for 2011. Shaker's top 5 at the race included Christian Delago, Mike Libruk, Casey Gilboy, Jon Vallecorsa, and Ryan Recchia got the second spot for Nationals and ended up 13th there under the Latham XC moniker. All but Gilboy returned this year for Shaker. The Comet (Rush Henrietta) team was 3rd but did not receive an at-large bid.

The Manlius girls always seem to have the hammer down, and last year they sped away from Kinetic (Saratoga) by 28-73 and a 44 second average advantage on their way to the national championship. 2010 Class A champ North Shore had 110 points and earned an at-large spot, but East Aurora at a close 124 points was left out in the cold. Only the top 2 Manlius runners from last year's top 5, Jillian Fanning and Katie Sischo, are back from last year's race, but they will be joined by #6 Katie Brislin though Christie Rutledge and Heather Martin are injured and Courtney Chapman is running for the 2011 3rd-place NCAA D1 Villanova team. Kinetic has their 5-6-7 runners from 2010's national runner-ups on this year's meet roster, Estela Smith, Taylor Driscoll, and Keelin Hollowood. North Shore has their big top 4 of Samantha Nadel, Brianna Nerud, Jessica Donahue, and Elizabeth Caldwell back from 2010's 9th place Nationals team, and Alexandra Osman assumed a spot on the roster to replace graduated sister Emily.

The top individual boys spots to Nationals were won by the Championship race's top three finishers, Sam Place of Saratoga's Kinetic who ran a 15:54.5, Washingtonville's Martin Hehir who was 3 seconds behind, and Baldwinsville's Shaun Thompson. Joining them were the Running Rebels' (McQuaid) Robert Hurlbut and Burnt Hills' Otis Ubriaco. Hehir was the top NY finisher at Nationals in 14th place, and Place was in 32nd behind three Manlius runners, McGurrin (17th), Roache (27th), and Ryan (28th).

On the girls side, Adirondack (Queensbury) runner Brittany Winslow was the top at-large runner in 2nd behind Manlius's Jillian Fanning, and she was joined by Huntington's (Harborfields) Kelsey Margey, Synergy's (Pittsford-Mendon) Shaylyn Tuite, St. John the Baptist's Anne Carey, and Canandaigua's Meghan McCormick. Manlius' Rutledge, Sischo, and Fanning in 2nd, 4th, and 6th were the top NY finishers at Nationals, and Tuite in 7th, Winslow in 10th, Glen Head's (North Shore) Nadel in 11th, Manlius's Martin in 16th, and Margey in 20th comprised a dominating 8 of top 20 position strangehold for the NY runners.

2011 Boys Overview
This year the top 3 teams from last year's race are back to battle for places at Nationals, and there's a decent chance that three NY teams will get passes to Portland. As the #2 team in the nation, Manlius\FM should have an extremely good chance of qualifying again. Though it had an extremely close call at States, the Manlius squad should be fired up for a repeat win at Bowdoin with a more than 4 TR point average edge over the Shaker and Comets\RushHen squads. Tully Runners projects Manlius\FM at 82 points, with Shaker edging Comets\RushHen by 116 to 119, a result that would likely see all three selected to Nationals. Arlington is projected in 4th at 145 by Tully and will likely need a major jump to get a spot at States.

Race Starts at 12:45. With 180 to 190 runners launching from the start, conditions will again be tight, and runners should be careful at the first little merging dip into the gravel pathway at around the 300m mark because at Feds there were a number of guys who tripped up and went down. And as always, keep something in reserve to stay strong up the winding path of the hill so that you can cut loose and fly on the long downhill and push the last mile to the finish.

Top 10 Teams at NXN New York
Team TR Average Top Runners The Word
Manlius\FM 181.4 Nick Ryan, Matt Deyo, Ben Thomas, Bryce Millar, Colin FitzGibbons, Conor Farrell Last year's #2 national team will get a ticket to Portland and have enough left in the tank to excel there again.
Shaker 177.0 Mike Libruk, Christian Delago, Jon Vallecorsa, Ethan Hausamann, Adam Schwenzfeier, Ryan Recchia Runner-up at NXN NY last year and as #17 US team this year should have strength to earn a spot.
Comets\Rush Henrietta 175.6 Mickey Burke, Nate Kozyra, Andrew Sweeney, Colby Burke, Alex Raymond Runner-up by 1 point at States to FM, and ranked #8 in US, so Comets could head west.
Arlington 174.0 Eddie Merenda, Sibby Hanson, Aaron Ryley, Chris Wise, Corey Chiavelli Admirals were #4 at States and at #25 US could have a shot. Merenda and Hanson have shots as individuals.
Assisi\St. Anthonys 171.8 Patrick Ginty, Thomas Diliberto, Brian Smith, Jake Hensler, Matthew Taddeo, Kevin Kreider St. Anthony's is #31 in US rankings, and the CHSAA champ has an outside shot for Nationals.
Fideles\Monsignor Farrell 171.2 Dan Galford, John Bentivegna, Steve Arnone, Alex LoPresti, John Lucchesi At #44 US, Farrell is well outside the comfort zone, but Galford has a strong shot.
East Aurora 170.0 Elliot Martynkiewicz, Sean Phillips, Gene Barritot, Brendan Keany, Larkin Bohanan The #30 US team looked good at Feds and will give it another try at Bowdoin for Nationals.
Warwick Valley 169.4 Paddy Grandinalli, Grant Parrelli, Aaron Peterson, Ray Farinella, Dan Peterson Wildcats finished 4th at last year's regional and this year are a long shot. though Grandinalli is in the running.
Flyers\Chaminade 169.2 Thomas Awad, Joseph Ferencik, Thomas Slattery, Brent Harrison, Matthew Walsh, Chaminade's best shot is with Awad, who finished 3rd at Feds.
South Huntington\Walt Whitman 168.8 Zachary Cammer, Michael Damato, Patrick Cummings, James Vallar. Chris Laucella Team is probably just in the running for a top 10 spot.
Rest of the teams: Honeoye Falls-Lima 165.8, Burnt Hills 164.4, Northport 163.4, Xavier 161.2, Irondequoit 161.0, Notre Dame-Bishop Gibbons Knightriders 161.0, Sachem East 159.8, Hilton 154.2, Our Lady of Lourdes (Poughkeepsie) 145.4, Hackley 142.8
 

Top 20+ Runners for NXN New York
Runner Team TR The Word
Nick Ryan Manlius 196 Leading team to Nationals, US #24 runner
Dan Galford Fideles\Farrell 187 Good shot after finishing 2nd at Feds
Mike Libruk Shaker 186 Likely going west with team
Thomas Awad Flyers\Chaminade 186 Good shot after finishing 3rd at Feds
Matt Deyo Manlius 185 Likely going west with team
Konrad Surkont Stuyvesant 185 1st in PSAL and 6th at Feds makes him prime contender 
Mike Turi John Jay-EF 184 Needs to move up from Feds' 19th place
Sam Anderson South Lewis 184 5th place at Feds gives him a decent shot
Eddie Merenda Arlington 183 Strong 7th place at Feds gives him shot if team comes up short
Ryan Manahan Marcellus 183 2nd in States B puts him in the running
Mickey Burke Comets\Rush-Henrietta 183 Has good shot with team or as individual
Brendan Wortner Dobbs Ferry 182 9th at Feds gives him some chance for Nationals
Cooper Roach Honeoye Falls-Lima 182 14th at Feds puts him somewhere in range
Sebastion Hanson Arlington 182 17th at Feds leaves him outside shot if team doesn't make it
Paddy Grandinalli Warwick 182 5th in States A race provides hope
Nate Kozyra Comets\Rush-Henrietta 181 Probably stands better chance going with team
Mike Anvelt Pittsford-Sutherland 181 4th in States B with an outside shot
Christian Delago Shaker 181 Good shot with team
MJ Erb Victor 181 2nd in States A was impressive but needs another big jump after 38th at Feds
Travis Jordan Gates-Chili 181 6th in States A gives long shot
Jack Stevenson Stuyvesant 181 16th at Feds gives outside shot
Kris Moran North Babylon 181 15th at Feds provides big rebound from States

2011 Girls Overview
The three teams New York sent to Nationals last year all seem ready to take a return trip, as Fayetteville Manlius, Saratoga Springs, and North Shore are ranked 1-2-3 in the US. Whether Kinetic\Saratoga or North Shore take the second automatic qualifying spot at Regionals on Saturday almost certainly matters little as both teams will be focusing more on a top performance at Nationals. Tully Runners projects Manlius with a very small 31 points with Kinetic\Saratoga edging North Shore by 96-97.

The battle for 4th place is the key interest point in this race, as one of likely 7 teams must make a strong enough case that the Nike selection committee cannot ignore it again in the picks for Portland. US #26 Canandaigua looks to have the best shot at earning the 4th NY ticket, but #31 Burnt Hills is running close behind. The two Class C rivals, US #30 Bronxville and US #33 Greenwich both have strong teams but only the Witches appear to be fielding a full team for Regionals. Ward Melville, the Academy of the Holy Names, US #48 Pearl River and East Aurora are also in the hunt. Tully Runners rates the main contenders for the second tier teams in favor of Canadaigua at 195, Burnt Hills at 199, and Greenwich at 201. These teams also include some top runners, such as Bronxville's Feds winner Mary Cain and 2010 NXN Nationals finalist Meghan McCormick of Canandaigua.

Race Starts at 12:10. As with the boys, there will be 180 to 190 runners at the start and runners need to get out hard while still keeping something in reserve to stay strong up the winding path of the hill. Once you reach the top, you are free to fly on the long downhill and push the last mile to the finish.

Top 10 Teams at NXN New York
Team TR Average Top Runners The Word
Manlius\FM 143.4 Jillian Fanning, Katie Sischo, Annika Avery, Hannah Smith, Jenna Farrell, Alana Pearl, Katie Brislin Sixth straight Regional and National championships appear imminent.
North Shore 133.2 Samantha Nadel, Brianna Nerud, Jessica Donohue, Elizabeth Caldwell, Alexandra Osman US #3 team should take a spot without a problem.
Kinetic\Saratoga 129.8 Taylor Driscoll, Estela Smith, Keelin Hollowood, Olivia Morrow, Katie Treichel, Tara Peck US #2 team and 2010 National runner-up appears set for another trip.
Canandaigua 119.8 Meghan McCormick, Kennedy Jensen, Kathleen McCormick, Kendall D'Amore, Lauren D'Amore Braves are #26 US team and will to post strong score earn a 4th NY spot among tough competition.
Burnt Hills 117.4 Alyssa Drapeau, Dani Martino, Meagan Roecker, Allison Fernandez, Jordan Casey, Burnt Hills has solid middle level depth that could help it move up to 4th place after a 3rd at Feds.
Bronxville 116.6 Mary Cain, Meredith Rizzo, Courtney Campbell, Amelia Phillips, Emelie Hoffer States Class C and Feds champion Cain should earn Nationals berth as most of her squad appears not to be running after 2nd place at Feds.
Greenwich 116.4 Victoria Houser, Madeline Montague, Sarah Lapham, Tori Spezio, Jackie Boyce The States C runner-up is rested and could pass Canandaigua and Burnt Hills if #5 runner Boyce can stay close.
Ward Melville 116.2 Caroline O'Hea, Courtney Williams, Juliana Marcucci, Brittany Williams, Sarah Cottone 4th in States A race and 7th at Feds, Patriots are not US ranked but are close enough to the teams above it to grab 4th at Regionals with big effort.
Academy of the Holy Names 114.2 Leah Triller, Catherine Maloy, Jacqueline Willsey, Kaylee Scott, Kaitlin Close Team will need more from runners than last Saturday after 14th place at Feds.
Pearl River 113.2 Kelly Hayes, Molly Shine, Ceili McMorrow, Maria Kohlbrenner, Emma Haley Strong run to 4th place at Feds gives Pirates a shot at 4th place at Regionals.
Rest of the teams: Honeoye Falls-Lima 111.4, Sachem East 111.2, East Aurora 110.4, Rush-Henrietta 110.0, Adirondack\Queensbury 108.0, Garden City 107.8, Suffern 102.2, Bemus Point\Maple Grove 102.2, Syracuse\Westhill-Ludden 99.2, Hilton 94.4
 
Top 20+ Runners for NXN New York
Runner Team TR The Word
Jillian Fanning Manlius\FM 155 Leading team to Nationals, US #5 runner
Mary Cain Bronxville 153 After 3rd best alltime run at Bowdoin for Feds, the US #20 runner should likely be moving down to single digit ranking and heading to Nationals.
Samatha Nadel North Shore 150 US #22 runner is heading to Nationals with team
Brianna Nerud North Shore 149 US #23 runner ... then ditto as per Nadel
Kelsey Margey Friends 142 Slowed dramatically by mud at States, Margey should likely rebound and get return to Nationals
Katie Sischo Manlius\FM 141 Always a stalwart at Nationals
Rachel Paul Sachem East 140 5th at Feds makes Paul a solid pick for Nationals
Annika Avery Manlius\FM 140 Going west as freshman
Gianna Frontera Newburgh 139 Finished 7th at Feds and is in good position for Nationals
Hannah Smith Manlius\FM 137 Heading to Nationals
Taylor Driscoll Kinetic\Saratoga 136 Leading team to Nationals
Meghan McCormick Canandaigua 136 Could get to Nationals with team or return as an individual
Estela Smith Kinetic\Saratoga 135 Going back to Nationals as freshman
Keelin Hollowood Kinetic\Saratoga 135 Still more kinetic energy
Holly Cavalluzzo Valley Central 134 Should be among the contenders for Nationals spot
Jessica Donahue North Shore 133 Should be back to Nationals with team
Jenna Farrell Manlius\FM 133 8th grader makes first trip to Nationals
Alana Pearl Manlius\FM 133 On to Nationals
Victoria Houser Greenwich 131 Some chance with team or as individual
Katie Brislin Manlius\FM 131 Onward again
Ariana Bottalico Brewster 131 12th at Feds and knows course well
Alicia Clark Pawlet\Granville 131 16th at Feds